Previewing the National League Wildcard Game

Both the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants finished the 2016 season with an 87-75 record, and they will square off on Wednesday, October 5th for the National League wildcard game. Noah Syndergaard (14-9, 2.60 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Mets, and San Francisco will send out their ace Madison Bumgarner (15-9, 2.74 ERA). In this article, we will preview the match-up. 

Bumgarner is one of the best postseason pitchers in MLB history

Madison Bumgarner has been one of the top left handed starting pitchers in baseball for years now. In fact, the 27 year old has gotten progressively better each season, and will pose a massive threat to the Mets. Below you will see some statistics about Bumgarner: 

Career Postseason Play: 7-3, 2.14 ERA

2016 Home ERA: 2.14 ERA (17 starts)

2016 Road ERA: 3.39 ERA (17 starts)

2016 2nd Half: 7-8, 3.80 ERA

Career v. NYM: 5-0, 1.86 ERA

Bumgarner will not be an easy obstacle to get past, but he has struggled in the 2nd half, evident by his almost-four earned run average. The 2014 World Series MVP has posted a combined 3.18 ERA in the 1st inning this year, so it may be wise for the Mets to attack early and hope to knock him out of the game before he settles in. In the 6th inning, his ERA sits at 3.41, and by the 7th, it rockets to 5.09.  

Let's see how the Mets projected lineup has fared against Bumgarner

1. Jose Reyes 3-9

2. Asdrubal Cabrera 3-7

3. Yoenis Cespedes 3-10

4. Curtis Granderson 0-3

5. Jay Bruce 3-23

6. T.J. Rivera 2-3

7. Lucas Duda 0-1

8. Rene Rivera 2-3

Other Notables

Kelly Johnson 7-20

James Loney 2-13

Michael Conforto 0-3

Eric Campbell 1-5

As you can see, the lineup has actually had a moderate amount of success against the four-time All-Star. 

The Giants bullpen is a mixed bag, to say the least. Their closer, Santiago Casilla, had a 3.57 ERA in 62 relief appearances for the Giants. Newcomer Will Smith has been a decent addition for the club, posting a 2.95 ERA in 26 outings, and Hunter Strickland has settled into a nice role as the setup man. Rookie hurler Derek Law has been sensational for the team, putting up a 2.14 ERA in 63 games, but the remainder of the bullpen has struggled. 

Syndergaard will look to lead the Mets to their second straight NLDS

Moving on to Noah Syndergaard, he earned his first career All-Star nomination this season. The 24 year old has dealt with bone spurs on and off in 2016, but has been healthy as of late. Like we did with Bumgarner, let's take a closer look at some of the important statistics surrounding Syndergaard. 

Career Postseason Play: 2-1, 3.31 ERA

2016 Home ERA: 2.87 ERA (17 games)

2016 Road ERA: 2.29 ERA (14 starts)

2016 2nd Half: 5-5, 2.65 ERA 

Career v.SF: 1-2, 3.66 ERA

Syndergaard, unlike Bumgarner, has actually fared better on the road, which does raise an eyebrow. While a 2.87 ERA is by no means poor, it is interesting and could have an effect on Syndergaard's upcoming performance. Of-course, the mantra with Noah is his inability to properly hold runners on base, as runners swiped 48 bags on him in 2016. That equated to a minuscule 16% caught stealing percentage, even with Rene Rivera, an outstanding defender, behind the dish.  

"Thor" has been fairly consistent throughout each time in the batting order, but it is important to note that he, for some reason, has a 5.20 ERA in the 4th inning. 

Now, let's see what the projected Giants lineup has done against Syndergaard

1. Denard Span 0-6

2. Brandon Belt 0-6

3. Buster Posey 3-6

4. Hunter Pence 1-5

5. Brandon Crawford 2-8

6. Angel Pagan 0-5

7. Joe Panik 2-6

8. Conor Gillaspie (No history w/ Syndergaard)

Other Notables

Eduardo Nunez 1-3

Gregor Blanco 0-3

Posey is a phenomenal player that can basically hit anyone in the league, so his numbers, albeit a small sample size, should not be surprising. Regarding the rest of the lineup, there is not enough to warrant any major worry, but you can bet that someone like Span or Pagan will test the base paths if they manage to reach base. 

Final Roster Decisions that must be made by Wednesday

Catcher: Rene Rivera and Travis d'Arnaud seem to be locks for the roster but Kevin Plawecki may also earn consideration. Manager Terry Collins may want Plawecki to provide flexibility for his bench, especially if the game goes into extra innings. Plawecki, however, hit a minuscule .197/.298/.265 on the season, so there is question over how much he can actually provide. 

First Base: This is the big question right now. Rumors have spread that Lucas Duda will get the starting nod over James Loney, and also that Eric Campbell could receive consideration. Campbell is one of the few remaining right handed bats on the roster, so perhaps it would be wise to keep him around. Ideally, this would have been a perfect spot for Wilmer Flores, who mashes lefties, but he was sidelined for the season with a hand injury.  

One of Conforto (left) and de Aza (right) will be on Wednesday's roster

Outfield: Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Yoenis Cespedes will start, but the real question lies within the backup corps. Juan Lagares will likely be chosen as the team's fourth outfielder because of his defensive prowess, but the team hasn't made an official decision just yet. Also, Alejandro de Aza and Michael Conforto will compete for the final bench spot. de Aza hit .205/.297/.321 with 6 HR, and Conforto registered 12 home runs while hitting .220/.310/.414. Conforto, as you may recall, enjoyed plenty of success in the 2015 World Series, hitting .333 with 2 HR in 5 games, and I believe that he deserves the remaining spot on the bench. 

Starting Pitching: It is a wildcard game, so not every starting pitcher is necessary to have. Syndergaard and Colon are the obvious ones, and the final spot will go to either Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman. Both rookie pitchers have been phenomenal for the Mets this year, and this will ultimately be an extremely difficult choice for Collins. 

Lugo went 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his final 5 starts of the season. The 26 year old certainly made a name for himself in 2016, but may be on the outside looking in. 

Gsellman had a 2.06 ERA in his last 6 starts. While both he and Lugo warrant consideration for the place, my guess is that Gsellman will get the nod. 

Bullpen: The 7th-9th innings are set up with Fernando Salas, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia. The remainder of the bullpen will likely comprise of Jerry Blevins, Hansel Robles, and Josh Smoker. However, it would not be surprising to see Collins add another lefty, notably Josh Edgin, due to the abundance of left handed hitters on the Giants. 

Reminder: The N.L. Wildcard Game will begin at 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 5th.